This annual pricing report explores Main Menu pizza price trends across five key Midwest states—Kansas (KS), North Dakota (ND), Ohio (OH), South Dakota (SD), and Wisconsin (WI)—from February 2024 to February 2025. By tracking monthly price changes for Small, Medium, and Large sizes, we uncover how economic pressures, market strategies, and consumer expectations shaped pricing over the past year.
Small Main Menu Pizza: Price Gaps Are Closing
The Small Main Menu pizza category demonstrated moderate year-over-year growth, with tighter price clustering and subdued volatility.
Kansas started high and stayed strong, climbing from $10.49 to $11.03, a $0.54 increase (+5.1%). While no longer the most expensive, Kansas maintained its premium orientation.
North Dakota, the most expensive state in this tier, rose from $11.02 to $11.30, marking a $0.28 increase (+2.5%) , the smallest percentage gain across the five states. Prices here remained stable, reflecting a mature pricing strategy with minimal seasonal disruption.
Ohio, at the value end, saw prices increase from $9.66 to $10.10, a $0.44 rise (+4.6%). Despite being the most affordable, Ohio continues a steady upward trend, possibly tied to inflation pass-through without risking customer churn.
South Dakota posted a gain from $10.19 to $10.67, up $0.48 (+4.7%), while Wisconsin moved from $10.27 to $10.76, an increase of $0.49 (+4.8%). Both states showed mid-pack growth, with slight summer softness and strong winter rebounds.
The data shows a seasonal dip around August–September, followed by price recovery in Q4, pointing to end-of-year promotional pullbacks and holiday-driven demand.
Medium Main Menu Pizza: Modest but Uniform Growth
Medium Main Menu pizzas followed a relatively synchronized growth pattern across all states, with minimal volatility and similar price ceilings.
Kansas again led with prices rising from $11.78 to $12.42, gaining $0.64 (+5.4%) marking a clear trend toward price leadership in this tier.
North Dakota started at $12.06 and ended at $12.33, reflecting only a $0.27 increase (+2.2%), the lowest change across the group. This suggests ND operators may have exercised restraint to maintain price positioning.
Ohio increased from $10.97 to $11.37, a $0.40 rise (+3.6%), maintaining its cost-conscious stance in the middle of the pack.
South Dakota rose from $11.39 to $11.89, a $0.50 boost (+4.4%), while Wisconsin went from $11.49 to $12.01, increasing $0.52 (+4.5%) both showing steady progression without aggressive jumps.
Q2 and Q3 saw flat or minimal growth, with a stronger Q4 recovery. Unlike BYO pizzas, Medium Main Menu items seem less prone to promotions and more influenced by slow-burn inflationary forces.
Large Main Menu Pizza: Highest Dollar-Value Gains
The Large size exhibited the largest absolute increases, pointing to inflationary pressures scaling with portion size and topping counts.
Kansas recorded the highest dollar jump from $14.28 to $15.06, an increase of $0.78 (+5.5%), reinforcing its consistently premium positioning across all sizes.
North Dakota climbed from $14.34 to $14.77, an increase of $0.43 (+3.0%). Even with one of the lowest percentage gains, ND remained among the most expensive states in absolute terms.
Ohio, continuing its low-price strategy, rose from $12.86 to $13.34, a $0.48 gain (+3.7%), maintaining its affordability edge.
South Dakota moved from $13.77 to $14.34, up $0.57 (+4.1%), while Wisconsin increased from $13.86 to $14.43, also gaining $0.57 (+4.1%). Both states exhibited stable growth patterns with minor early-year dips.
Across all five states, Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 saw the most significant spikes, consistent with broader inflation trends and increased year-end foodservice demand.
Key Takeaways: Strategic Pricing Observations Across States
1. Kansas Leads in Size-Adjusted Pricing Power
Kansas consistently posts the highest price increases especially in Medium and Large categories showing deliberate upward movement that reflects either brand strength or high regional cost inputs.
2. North Dakota Maintains High Base Prices with Low Increases
Despite having the highest Small and near-highest Large prices, ND saw the lowest percentage growth across all sizes. This suggests either early pricing optimization or reduced elasticity in its customer base.
3. Ohio Holds the Value Position
Ohio remains the most affordable state, despite consistent year-over-year increases. Its strategy appears aimed at maximizing volume while limiting price hikes, possibly to defend market share during inflation.
4. South Dakota & Wisconsin Track Parallel Growth Paths
These states followed nearly identical patterns across all sizes, moderate seasonal dips, Q4 rebounds, and overall mid-range pricing. They represent the most balanced pricing behavior in the region.
5. Large Pizzas Reflect Strongest Inflation Signals
The largest absolute dollar gains occurred in the Large pizza segment, particularly in Q4. This trend mirrors rising input costs and higher consumer willingness to pay for shareable portions.
Final Thoughts
This 12-month analysis of Main Menu pizza pricing uncovers clear patterns of strategic pricing behavior across Midwest states. Whether it’s Kansas commanding premium pricing, Ohio anchoring the value spectrum, or North Dakota holding high bases with minimal changes, each state’s pricing strategy reflects nuanced decisions shaped by cost, demand, and competitive pressures.
As the industry heads further into 2025, continued cost pressures and shifting consumer behavior will likely drive even tighter pricing convergence making real-time pricing intelligence more essential than ever.